India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) marks a significant escalation in its strategy following the Pahalgam terror attack.
The move signals a shift in how New Delhi may leverage transboundary water flows to increase pressure on Pakistan.
As treaty constraints lift, India is likely to assert more control over its rivers, fast-track hydro projects, and reduce cooperation—developments that could have far-reaching implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, energy, and economy.
The suspension could also mean halting regulated releases from the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. While natural river flow would continue, India may now stop regulated water discharges from hydro facilities like Kishanganga and the under-construction Ratle Dam—both crucial to Pakistan’s seasonal crop irrigation.
Projects like the 330 MW Kishanganga (already running) and the 850 MW Ratle (still being built) will likely be pushed faster. With treaty restrictions gone, India could redesign these dams, perhaps increasing storage or tweaking outflow patterns—something Pakistan has raised objections to in the past.
On the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—India could now tap its full share more aggressively. The Shahpurkandi Dam, completed in 2024, and the proposed Ujh Dam, are part of this push. By fully utilizing its rights, India might cut off the 9.3 billion cubic meters of water that used to flow into Pakistan each year.
Also, it’s likely India will cut off data sharing. Real-time river flow info and Pakistani access to inspect Indian dams may no longer be available.
Key Dams Involved:
Kishanganga (Jhelum): Diverts water from a Mangla Dam tributary; operational since 2018.
Ratle (Chenab): Still under construction; may reduce water to Punjab in Pakistan.
Shahpurkandi (Ravi): Already diverts Ravi’s water into Indian territory.
Ujh (Ravi): Planned dam; could further reduce downstream water availability.
Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan could go to the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration—but India might now reject their jurisdiction due to the suspended treaty.
Energy shortage threat: Hydropower facilities like Mangla and Tarbela dams contribute around 30% of Pakistan’s electricity. Reduced water inflow could bring down output and cause load shedding.
Wider economic ripple: Lower yields may drive up rural unemployment, force farmers into debt defaults, and push more people into cities like Karachi and Lahore in search of work.
Soil damage increases: With irrigation cut down, salinity in farmland—already a problem on 43% of Pakistan’s arable land—might rise, eventually making some areas unfit for cultivation.
Provincial disputes: Less river water could renew old tensions between provinces, especially under the 1991 Water Accord framework.
The Indus river system is made up of six main rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Of these, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab are categorized as the Western Rivers, while Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej are grouped as the Eastern Rivers. There’s also the Kabul River, which joins the Indus after flowing through Afghanistan, but it doesn’t pass through India at any point.